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In the second quarter of 2014, China's security industry recovered

2014-08-01


Entering 2014, China's new government's thinking on economic regulation has become increasingly clear, and the overall strategy of "not stimulating, deleveraging, and promoting reform" has basically been determined. First, no large-scale economic stimulus plan will be issued; second, keep economic operation within a reasonable range and promote deleveraging of the government and enterprises; third, comprehensively and firmly promote economic system reform, so that "reform becomes the biggest dividend of China's economy" . Under this circumstance, China's economy has maintained a slowing and stabilizing growth trend. GDP growth in the first half of the year is expected to be around 7.4%, and it has been operating between 7% and 8% for five consecutive quarters. According to the data, in the three months of the second quarter of 2014, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' PMI index (PMI index in Chinese means purchasing manager's index, PMI index 50 is the glory line. When PMI is greater than 50, it indicates that the economy is developing When the PMI is less than 50, it indicates that the economy is in recession.) It is 50.4%, 50.8%, and 51.0%, respectively, and has maintained a good momentum of steady recovery for four consecutive months.
In terms of foreign trade exports, in the first half of 2014, China's total import and export value was 12.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 6.5 trillion yuan, down 1.2%; imports were 5.9 trillion yuan, down 0.6%; trade surplus was 630.6 billion yuan, narrowing 6.5%. In order to stabilize and expand foreign trade, the General Office of the State Council issued “Several Opinions on Supporting the Stable Growth of Foreign Trade” on May 4 this year. Subsequently, the General Administration of Customs and other departments of the State Council successively issued supporting measures. Imports and exports increased in May and June. The growth rate has been expanding month by month, and the growth rate of China's foreign trade import and export value in the second quarter achieved a positive growth year-on-year.
Judging from the development situation of China's security industry, the second quarter has improved to a greater extent compared to the first quarter in the trough. According to survey data on the industry's business climate, the main business climate indexes such as the production scale of the security industry, the domestic sales market, foreign trade exports, and corporate profits in the second quarter have all increased to varying degrees, and corporate investment has also increased accordingly. However, due to various factors such as the economic situation at home and abroad and the slowdown of the industry's growth, security entrepreneurs' confidence in future development has also been affected to a certain extent, and the entrepreneur's confidence index has declined.
1. The industry boom stabilized and rebounded
(1) The industry's prosperity continues to remain in the "stronger economic range"
In the first quarter of 2014, the prosperity index of China's security industry was 157, which dropped from the "extreme prosperity interval" in the fourth quarter of 2013 to the "stronger prosperity interval." This relatively stable state was maintained in the second quarter of 2014, with a security industry prosperity index of 156. Among the surveyed companies, 61% of the companies considered their business status to be "good", 34% of the companies considered "general or flat", and only 5% of the companies reported "poor".
(2) Production boom returns to normal
In the first quarter of this year, due to the influence of seasons and other factors, the surveyed enterprise production (construction) total prosperity index fell to 115, falling to the "relative prosperity interval." In the second quarter, this situation has improved significantly. The production (construction) prosperity index is 155, and it has returned to the "stronger prosperity range", which is also better than 139 in the same period last year. Among the surveyed subjects, 65% of the enterprises reported that the scale of production (construction) was expanded compared with the previous quarter, an increase of 30 percentage points over the previous quarter; 25% of the enterprises reported "flat", a decrease of 20 percentage points; 10% of the enterprises reported production The quantity "decreased" by 10 percentage points. In terms of labor demand, the prosperity index was 152, which was flat compared with the previous quarter, reflecting that 61% of the companies had “increased” labor demand, 30% had “flat” companies, and 9% had “decreased” companies.
(3) The domestic market is heating up and has returned to the level of the same period last year
In the second quarter, the security product (engineering) sales prosperity index was 136, an increase of 21 points from the previous quarter, from the "relative prosperity interval" to a "relatively prosperous interval". Among the companies surveyed, 50% had a new increase in sales, up 15 percentage points from the previous quarter; 36% of companies reported that sales were "flat", a decrease of 9 percentage points; 14% of companies reported a "decrease" , A decrease of 6 percentage points (see Figure 2).

(4) The export prosperity of foreign trade rebounded and rose to a "more prosperous range"
In the second quarter of 2013, the prosperity index of China's security industry reached 127, the best level since 2008, but then declined quarter by quarter, and the lowest in the first quarter of 2014 was 103, which was close to the critical point of the boom. In the second quarter of 2014, the foreign trade situation improved, and the foreign trade export prosperity index reached 130, which was an increase of 27 points compared with the previous quarter, and also higher than the level of the same period last year. Among exporting companies, 42% of export businesses reported "increased", an increase of 21 percentage points from the previous quarter; 46% of companies reported "flat", a decrease of 15 percentage points from the previous quarter; 12% of companies reported that exports " "Decrease", a decrease of 6 percentage points from the previous quarter (see Figure 3).

(5) The profitability of the enterprise has increased synchronously
Production (engineering) costs are relatively stable
In the second quarter of this year, the cost of security production (engineering) companies was similar to the previous quarter, and most companies reported flat. Among the surveyed companies, the cost of "increasing" was 41%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous quarter; the level of "reflecting" enterprises was 54%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous quarter; , A decrease of 7 percentage points from the previous quarter. According to the company's report, 40% of the current factors that cause the increase in the cost of enterprises are due to the increase in staff salaries, 21% are due to the increase in administrative expenses, 20% are due to the increase in the purchase price of raw materials, and 12% are due to the changes in energy prices.
Sales prices were flat and slightly lower than the previous quarter
In the second quarter, 17% of the surveyed companies reported "increasing" product sales prices, 61% reported "flat" companies, and 22% reported "declined" companies. In the first quarter, the proportions of companies that reported "up", "flat" and "down" were 27%, 61% and 12%, respectively. Judging from the data comparison, under the overall stable situation, the sales price of a few enterprises has declined.
Corporate profitability index rose to "more prosperous range"
In the first quarter of this year, due to the impact of sales decline and other factors, the company's profitability has declined significantly, and the corporate profitability index has dropped to 121. In the second quarter, with the increase in sales volume, the profitability of the company has improved. The profitability index is 140, which is 19 points higher than the first quarter, but it is still in the "more prosperous range". Among the respondents, 55% of the companies reported "increasing profits (or reducing losses)", an increase of 14 percentage points from the previous quarter; 30% of companies reported "flat", a decrease of 9 percentage points from the previous quarter; 15% % Of companies report "decrease in profit (or increase in loss)", which is 5 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
(6) Increased enthusiasm for enterprise investment
Booming investment in fixed assets
For a long time, the prosperity index of China's security companies' fixed asset investment has been maintained at a relatively high level, but in the first quarter of this year, the company's fixed asset investment has shown a sharp decline. For the first time, it has fallen below the critical point of prosperity and is in Weak recession "interval. Entering the second quarter, this situation has been greatly reversed. The fixed asset investment prosperity index was 127, which rose to a "more prosperous range", an increase of 29 points from the previous quarter. Among the surveyed enterprises, 41% of the enterprises expanded their investment in fixed assets, and the proportion increased by 21 percentage points over the previous quarter; 45% of the enterprises' investment remained the same as the previous quarter, a decrease of 13 percentage points from the previous quarter; 14% Of corporate investment declined by 8 percentage points from the previous quarter (see Figure 4).

Technological innovation investment continues to maintain strong momentum
In recent years, security companies have continued to increase their investment in technological innovation. R & D (technical R & D expenses as a percentage of total revenue) of large-scale enterprises can generally reach 10%, and the industry ’s investment in technological innovation has basically remained at Strong boom zone ". In the second quarter of this year, the prosperity index of security enterprises' investment in science and technology was 163, a decrease of 7 points from the previous quarter, and it was still in the "stronger economic range". Among them, 65% of enterprises continued to increase investment in R & D funds, and 33% of enterprises' investment in scientific research was the same as that of the previous quarter (see Figure 5).
Capital is relatively stable
In terms of liquidity, companies that reported sufficient liquidity accounted for 41% in the second quarter, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous quarter; companies that were able to maintain normal turnover accounted for 36%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous quarter; 23% Enterprises reported tight funds, up 4 percentage points from the previous quarter. In terms of corporate finance, 23% of companies reported that financing was "easy", an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous quarter; 57% of companies reported "normal", a decrease of 6 percentage points from the previous quarter; 20% reported "difficult" ", A decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous quarter. In terms of capital transactions, 21% of companies reported “increased” fund arrears, down 4 percentage points from the previous quarter; 47% reflected “flat” companies, down 6 percentage points from the previous quarter; and “reduced” companies accounted for 32%, up 10 percentage points from the previous quarter.
2. Entrepreneurs' confidence in future development has declined
In the second quarter, the security entrepreneur confidence index was 145, a decrease of 20 points from the previous quarter, from the "stronger economic range" to the "more prosperous range", and the lowest level since 2009. This situation shows that although most entrepreneurs have optimistic confidence in the future development of the industry, there are also increasing numbers of entrepreneurs who are worried about the future. Among the surveyed enterprises, 60% of the entrepreneurs were “optimistic” about the development of the industry, which was 9 points lower than the previous quarter; 25% of the enterprises considered it “average”, which was 2 points lower than the previous quarter; Companies accounted for 15%, up 11 points from the previous quarter (see Figure 1).

3. Analysis and forecast of the security economic situation in the second half of 2014
(1) Analysis of national economic situation
From the perspective of the national economy, the economic growth rate in the second quarter has reached the lower limit of the "reasonable range" and is facing greater deceleration pressure. Therefore, the State Council decided to Take a series of positive measures to promote economic growth: First, give play to the key role of investment in driving economic growth, take measures to actively support high-speed rail, municipal and other infrastructure projects, shantytown renovation, energy conservation and environmental protection, information infrastructure and other fields of investment; second, play The basic role of consumption in economic growth is to cultivate new growth engines such as information consumption and environmental protection consumption, and put forward the goal of an average annual growth of 20% in information consumption in the next three years. The third is to study and determine measures to promote trade facilitation and promote the stable development of imports and exports. Against this background, the trend of “slowing and stabilizing” in the economy is expected to continue, and it is expected to achieve the target of 7.5% GDP growth for the whole year. The growth of investment in urban infrastructure, railways, water conservancy, and affordable housing in the second half of the year is expected to be The key focus of the policy. China's foreign trade situation will also pick up and pick up slightly, with exports expected to increase by about 5% year-on-year.
(2) Forecast of the security market in the second half of the year
According to the surveyed companies, about 76% of the companies' sales will increase in the next quarter, about 17% of the companies will be the same as the second quarter, and 7% of the companies are expected to decline. Survey companies predict that the security industry will grow at a rate of 16% in the third quarter. The video surveillance market is expected to grow by 18%, the burglar alarm market is expected to grow by 11.5%, the access control market is expected to grow by 14%, and the physical protection market will grow by 12%. According to the analysis of application fields, the market growth rate of traditional industries and fields (such as cultural, financial, government agencies, public places, etc.) is about 16%, and emerging industries (such as transportation, education, sports, medical, culture, energy, water conservancy, etc.) ) 'S market growth rate is about 17%, the market growth rate of the "Safe City" construction project is about 19%, the market growth rate in the community and residential areas is about 17%, and the growth rate in foreign markets is about 7%.



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